June Newsletter - 2018
- Mitraz Knowledge
- Jun 30 2018
KNOWLEDGE-OUTCOME BIASSymptoms - The Isolation Effect (The Von Restorff Effect) is likely to be exhibited when people value a thing differently depending on whether it differs from the rest and whether placed next to an inferior alternative. Hedwig von Restorff recognized the Von Restorff effect in 1933. She conducted a set of memory experiments around separate and distinctive items, concluding that a different thing, in a list of otherwise related things, would be better remembered than an item...
February Newsletter - 2018
- Mitraz Knowledge
- Feb 28 2018
KNOWLEDGE-OVERCONFIDENCE BIASSymptoms - The self-belief that one has higher skills or an edge compared to others due to success in the recent past. A fallout of overconfidence bias is that we tend to remember winners and the effect of these winners on the portfolio. Overestimating the expected return and underestimating the volatility of the return in a shorter time-period, one tends to put more weight in whatever one feels more confident. An example could be: Holding a major part of ones' investments...
January Newsletter - 2018
- Mitraz Knowledge
- Jan 31 2018
KNOWLEDGE - CONFIRMATION BIASSymptoms - We don't argue any findings if it supports our existing view, whereas we tend to disagree more if the findings don't support our view.The entire chain of action follows: search, interpret, favor and recall, all in a way that confirms our pre-existing beliefs or hypothesis.An example could be: FD's are safe and better than Debt Funds. If this is our belief, then any short term negative performance by the debt funds in a client portfolio can make the client nervous...
December Newsletter - 2018
- Mitraz Knowledge
- Dec 31 2018
KNOWLEDGE - ENDOWMENT BIASSymptoms - The tendency to place a significantly higher value on things when we already own them.An Example - The endowment effect was identified by economist Richard Thaler in the 1970's when he gave the example of a man who bought a case of wine in the late 1950s for about $5/bottle. A few years later, his wine merchant offered to buy the wine back for $100 a bottle and the man refused, even though he had never paid more than $35 for a bottle of wine ever. Similarly, people...
November Newsletter - 2018
- Mitraz Knowledge
- Nov 30 2018
KNOWLEDGE - INCENTIVE CAUSED BIASSymptoms - It is said that one should not ask the barber the need for a haircut. People with a vested interest will tend to direct you or make you eliminate every other route and guide you in the direction of their interest.An example - In a paper "Misled and mis-sold: Financial misbehaviour in retail banks?" by Monika Halan and Renuka Sane presented on 5th Aug 2016, auditors approach banks for advice on tax saving instruments. The private sector banks with high sales...
October Newsletter - 2018
- Mitraz Knowledge
- Oct 31 2018
KNOWLEDGE - HINDSIGHT BIASSymptoms - When finally after the outcome of an event, one tries to simplify the causes and effects of a complex situation (complex because the actual outcome was clearly not expected to happen) and starts to assume better predictive ability after linking something important before the event to the result.An example - R.Beyth and B.Fischhoff devised the first experiment directly testing the hindsight bias. They asked participants to judge the likelihood of several outcomes...
August Newsletter - 2018
- Mitraz Knowledge
- Aug 31 2018
KNOWLEDGE - INFORMATION BIASSymptoms - The tendency to collect more information beyond a point that the information collected ceases to affect the decision that has already been made. Financial News Channels and Websites present investors with plenty of information every day and it is difficult to filter the material, relevant info from non-material info.Examples - Getting worried or influenced by daily share price or market movements or random company developments that usually contain no information...
July Newsletter - 2018
- Mitraz Knowledge
- Jul 31 2018
KNOWLEDGE-LOSS AVERSION BIASSymptoms - Loss aversion refers to the tendency to prefer avoiding losses than acquiring gains. Some studies suggest that losses are psychologically twice as powerful as gains. This term was framed by famed psychologists Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman in the early 90s.Examples - A). Loss aversion has a very significant effect on Real Estate Investments, an asset class which is influenced by emotions more than any other asset classes. People are unwilling to sell their...
